Establish a theory of probable cause

5.1 Explain the troubleshooting methodology

📘CompTIA Network+ (N10-009)


When you troubleshoot network or IT issues, you don’t just randomly try solutions. You follow a structured process. One critical step in that process is establishing a theory of probable cause. This means figuring out what is most likely causing the problem before you start fixing it.

Think of it like this: instead of blindly trying every solution, you use the information you have to form a smart guess about the root cause.


Step 1: Gather Information

Before you create a theory, you need to understand the problem fully. You do this by:

  • Asking questions: Who is affected? When did the problem start? What applications or services are impacted?
  • Reviewing logs: Check server logs, firewall logs, or network device logs for errors or unusual activity.
  • Observing the symptoms: Are users unable to connect to the network? Is the internet slow? Are only certain devices affected?

Example: Users in the marketing department cannot access the shared printer. Logs show the printer server is online, but no connections are coming through from their subnet.


Step 2: Identify Common Causes

Use your knowledge of IT systems to list what usually causes this type of issue. Start broad, then narrow it down.

Common categories of causes include:

  1. Hardware failures
    • Example: A failed switch port could prevent a user from connecting to the network.
  2. Software or configuration errors
    • Example: Incorrect IP address or subnet mask prevents access to a server.
  3. Network issues
    • Example: Misconfigured VLANs can stop a group of users from reaching certain network resources.
  4. Security or access issues
    • Example: ACLs (Access Control Lists) blocking traffic to a server.
  5. External factors
    • Example: ISP outage or DHCP server failure affecting multiple users.

Step 3: Create a Theory of Probable Cause

Now that you know the symptoms and possible causes, you make an educated guess. Your theory should be based on:

  • Experience: Past knowledge of similar problems.
  • Evidence: Facts you’ve gathered from logs, observations, and error messages.
  • Logic: Consider what is most likely given the information.

Example:
If the marketing users cannot reach the printer but the IT department can, a probable cause might be a VLAN misconfiguration or ACL blocking traffic from the marketing subnet.


Step 4: Prioritize Theories

You might have more than one possible cause. Decide which one is most likely and easiest to test first.

  • High probability / low effort: Check VLAN settings.
  • Medium probability / medium effort: Verify firewall rules.
  • Low probability / high effort: Replace hardware.

This helps save time and prevents unnecessary changes.


Step 5: Document Your Theory

Before testing or implementing fixes, write down your theory:

  • What you think the problem is.
  • Why you think this is the cause.
  • How you plan to test or verify it.

Documentation is important because it:

  • Helps you track what you’ve tried.
  • Shows others your troubleshooting process.
  • Reduces mistakes by following a clear plan.

Key Points to Remember for the Exam

  1. Establishing a theory is an analytical step. Don’t just jump to solutions.
  2. Use available evidence: Logs, error messages, observations, and user reports.
  3. Consider common causes: Hardware, software, network, security, and external factors.
  4. Prioritize and document your theory before testing.
  5. Be prepared to revise your theory if testing shows it’s wrong.

Quick IT Example Scenario

Problem: Users cannot access a shared network drive.

Steps to establish a theory:

  1. Gather info: Check which users are affected, verify network connection, check error messages.
  2. Identify common causes: Server down, incorrect permissions, network connectivity, antivirus blocking access.
  3. Form theory: Most users on the same subnet cannot access the drive → likely network ACL issue.
  4. Prioritize: Check ACL settings first (high probability, low effort).
  5. Document theory: “Users on subnet X cannot access shared drive due to possible ACL blocking; plan to check ACL configuration.”

Exam Tip:
For CompTIA Network+ questions, when you see “establish a theory of probable cause,” think:

“What is the most likely reason for the issue based on facts and observations, and how will I test it logically?”

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